Monday, September 29, 2008

From Russia with ...

Ok, so the Russkies are here. Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov arrived yesterday for the eighth India-Russia Intergovernmental Committee on Military-Technical Cooperation that will happen from 11AM-11.55AM today. Wonder what they'll actually get to iron out in 55 minutes. The Gorshkov deal will come up at the meeting, though no formal agreement on price will be made at this sitting. A price will be mutually fixed only over the next couple of months, apparently. Other reports indicate the multirole transport aircraft (MRTA) protocol could be converted into a formal joint venture between HAL and Ilyushin, and the 80 Mi-17-IVA deal could be concluded. Other issues on the agenda include the fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), and sundry grouses -- the T-90 technology transfer issue and midway cost escalations.


Anonymous said...

Thnks. Will be waiting for more on the same, Shiv.


asit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Asit said...

Wonder what they'll actually get to iron out in 55 minutes

Dear Shiv I admire your resourcefullness and read your blog quite regularly. However many a time I get the impression that your articles are prejudiced against Russia!! I guess this is absolutely unwarranted. You may hate Russia to the core but they are still our most reliable partners.

Please understand the fact that its not the quantity of time spent in the meeting but its the quality of discussion in the meeting which matters the most.

Anonymous said...

and the mig-29k follow-on order will be signed.

Anonymous said...

From Shiv's surprised tone, it appears that from morning newspaper reports he comes to know that the Russkies are here!!

Wow, so much for a senior special defence correspondent in a TV channel.Good

We also have read all the papers Shiv.

Vishal Nalkur said...

Hey Shiv and all,

Read about the "10 year" extension of agreement for military co-operation signed on today. What does that exactly mean?

Anonymous said...

all these fucking corrospondents
and blog writers need some masala
to post so they get russia to critisize but they never looked what v r paying to russia for purchase compared to same purchase if v buy from western countries

Anonymous said...

to everyone


engines r new

boilers r new

elctrical systems r new

wirings r new

heating,referegeration and air conditioning r new

radars r new

combat systems r new

arresting wires r new

some change of old inner configuraton of ship for storage of fighters and helos acco to navy requirement

hull strenthning

new shaping of the landing deck for aircraft take off

all these systems can't b employed
simultaneously but only one after one

cuz all these systems r new and these r also required in a new ship of same size that russians using in gorky
thats y they r expensive

and doing all this in a old ship is much more complicated than building a new ship and it takes time

infact the ship will sport all new systems except for hull

although gorshkov is delayed it will cost us around 1.7-1.8 billion
after renegotiation

but v still save around
$ 1.5-2 billion cuz new ship will
cost us $ 3.5-4 billion

and IF these "blog writers" hav nothing to post they critisize and come up with GORSHKOV ISSUE without looking y russia asking more money and y it is delayed

Anonymous said...

TO every one

infact "all corrospondents and blog writers of different blogs" criticise russia

but they hav no explanation to some points

y mirage upgrade deal $ 1 billion is costlier than mig 29 upgrade deal,mirages will not hav new engines

y just 24 harpoon missiles costs us $ 170 million ,our brahmos is cheaper than harpoon
y c130j deal will costs us
$ 1.2 billion for just 6 aircrafts

then IL72,78 r chealper than c130j
y P8I deal is $ 2.2 billion costly
just for 8 aircraft

P8I deal with each aircraft costs us "EXORBITANT 275 MILLION PER PIECE"
and aircraft have inferior range and payload compared to present aircraft AND V R READY TO PAY


y rd33-3 engine deal costs us
$ 250 million for 120 engines so each engine costs us only 2 million
compared to ge404 which costs us around 5-6million
y al55 engine deal is less costly than snecma larzec engine deal

y the deal for 40 more su30mki costs us $ 2.2 billion compared to

24 f16 bought by morrocco costs
$ 2.4 billion

24 f18 aussies bought for
$ 2.8 billion
s.korea bought 24 apaches for
$ 811 million bucks and that was

60% below the factory price but even now each apache costs
$ 33 million per piece

v bought 80 mi17v5 for $ 1 billion

and even now sengupta sees mi17 deal as costly deal but what about all deals above

Prasun K Sengupta said...

To Anon@9.25PM: All you are doing is quoting the procurement costs. Can you give us a breakdown of total life-cycle costs? Do you have them? Because that's what the majority of world's countries, India included now, give priority to when drawing up the techno-economic matrix for realising their force modernisation objectives. Until then, don't jump to any half-baked conclusions.

Anonymous said...

to sengupta

All you are doing is quoting the procurement costs. Can you give us a breakdown of total life-cycle costs? Do you have them?

Until then, don't jump to any half-baked conclusions.


its not me who jumped to half backed conclusions ,these r the well prooven conclusions and for those conclusions u have no answers.

y buy inferior system by paying more money just like
P8I ,HARPOON if a better system can b bought for less

first v need to look at the procurement costs why it is too
high if those system
r inferior to current systems

their upgrading costs is waaaaay
higher like mirage upgrade case


why did al55 engine was bought y not larzec engine

then y did any naval ship like frigate or destroyer has been bought from west

rd 33-3,mk engine is more than a
to m88-2 and ej 2000


if life cycle cost is higher then IAF,army would not go for
su30mki,mi17 helo,il78 tanker,
t 90 tank

AND navy would not buy additional ships from russia

Anonymous said...

to senguta

first u provide life cycle cost for russian systems and

stop criticising others

first do u r home work and

look at this with open eyes

australia pays $ 1 bilion a year for 24 f18 s/h for support and maintaince and for 40 years
they will pay upto 40 billion+
upgrade cost extra

and if they have 126 f18 s/h like our mrca they have to pay around
$ 5 billion for support and maintaince per year

and for 40 years life cycle cost for 126 f18 s/h will b $160 billions dollars+upgrade costs extra

if v have 126 rafales their upgrade alone cost around $ 7 billion (if u calculate according to mirage upgrade deal cost) cuz rafale is a twin engine aircrat

typhoon,rafale have higher initial price +their upgrading cost will b waaaaaay higher than russian aircraft +

rafale,typhoon,f18 no desicive advantage against mig35 so y their
costs for procurement ,upgrading maintaince is higher

Prasun K Sengupta said...

To Anon@1.48AM: I went through your 'thesis' above in great detail, but still could not find any mention opf the breakdown of total life-cycle costs? Do you have them? Please? And what's the truth about INS Vikramaditya/GORSHKOV, apart from the fact that the previous top management of FSUE SEVMASH went AWOL with the money given to Rosoboronexport by the Govt of India? If that money was paid to any European or South Korean shipyard in 2004, by 2006 the Indian Navy would have had two LHDs/LPDs. The only reason India ordered the three follow-on Project 1135.6 FFGs is because Russia's won't pay India back the last tranche of the US$2.5 billion which it owes as part of the final settlement of the Rupee-Rouble trading system of the Soviet era.

Anonymous said...

Mr sengupta

for u r comment

The only reason India ordered the three follow-on Project 1135.6 FFGs is because Russia's won't pay India back the last tranche of the US$2.5 billion which it owes as part of the final settlement of the Rupee-Rouble trading system of the Soviet era.
Project 1135.6 FFGs costs bit over
$ 1.5 billion not $ 2.5 billion

and mind u three additional frigates on order to russia after current order of 3 frigates

Anonymous said...

to sengupta

If that money was paid to any European or South Korean shipyard in 2004, by 2006 the Indian Navy would have had two LHDs/LPDs

india paid intially $ 800 million for gorky
no western shipyard will ever respond to that rfp for the money envolved

how much australia paying to spain for its 3 f 100 ships and 2 canberra class ship and its around
$ 11 billion

and gorshkov price is much lower than the above

Mayuresh Gaikwad said...


I have a query. I know that our navy and airforce is seriously small as compared to the chinese. However, I read somewhere that many of the chinese ships / aircraft are essentially outdated and pretty much sitting ducks.

Can someone (Prasun / Shiv / Anonymous) do a quality and quantity comparison of India and China w.r.t Navy and Air-force? Else can one of you point me to some report that does it?


Anonymous said...

Hey Mayuresh

Go to youtube and type Indian navy Vs China navy. You will find a video posted by some "KashSoldier". The comparison videos between Indian & Chinese Navy and Airforces were posted by "KashSoldier". I dont know whether the information in that video is accurate or not. But it makes some sence to me.

Anil Reddy

Anonymous said...

su 30mki prodcution stated almost 3 years before f22 production started

US has almost 100 of them in commission and 22 more delivered

v have only 60 su30mki in commission

any answer?

Mayuresh Gaikwad said...

Hi Anil,

I have seen the video and know that KashSoldier is quite a credible source. However, the number of Ships and aircraft fielded by China is quite huge, so I wanted to verify if indeed most of the chinese weaponry is outdated and will not stand our weapons. Hence asking one of the better informed journos on this blog for help. Having said that, I think we need to invest a lot more in defence, we are falling way short of our requirements!

@ Anon (F-22 one, 7:41 AM) - it is mostly about the money. When we spend as much as the US does on defence (USD 500 billion), I am sure we can have 100 Su-30 MKIs per year. Further, I am not sure if we have started manufacturing all parts of the Su-30MKI in India, though HAL has begun assembly. Importing parts also has its own constraints

Anonymous said...

money is not the constraint it because of lazyness of our top officials

in the same context china has 400 sukhois and v have only 60

v got the tot for mki but it proved costly to indegenize

that y v need to import parts from russia directly

just think the tot for mrca will help us or not will v successfully indegenize the tot for mrca

china successfully indegenize the su27 except engines what v can do

Prasun K Sengupta said...

To Mayuresh Gaikwad@3.50AM: When comparing the force levels of both China and India one needs to bear in mind that the PLA Navy and Air Force are primarily Taiwan- and Japan-centric in terms of their immediate threat perceptions. Therefore, the bulk of their deployed assets are in southeast and northeast China (this being also to keep a weary eye toward the Korean Peninsula). Having said that, if the PRC maintains the momentum of improving its rail/road/air transportation logistics infrastructure throughout the Tibet Autonomnous Region then within a decade India will have a formidable threat scenario to contend with all the way from Turtuk in J & K all the way to the China-India-Bhutan trijunction from a neighbour with the intent and capability to engage in high-intensity but limited air-land campaigns. With regard to naval expeditionary warfare and maritime force projection the PLA Navy has a distinct edge over India now but this might remains focussed against Taiwan. I do not foreseee such an expeditionary forces entering the Bay of Bengal or Indian Ocean via the Malacca, Sunda or Lomkok Straits in the near future. But the PLA Navy's undersea warfare capabilities are formidable as it has a growing fleet of nuclear-powered SSNs. And up to four of their new-generation DDGs (Nos 115, 116, 170 and 171) are already equipped with long-range surface-to-air missiles and can also launch the 300km-range C-602 anti-ship cruise missile. Hope this helps you.

On a totally unrelated note, I just saw on Al Jazeera English an interview of the Chief of Afghan National Intelligence, Amirullah Salleh (a former aide to the legendary Ahmed Shah Masood) who revealed that in late 2006 his agency had arrested an ISI operative who had helped Osama bin Laden to seek shelter in the Chitral part of Pakistan's no-go Northern Areas soon after Osama's retreat from Tora Bora. It seems he's still holed up there.

Prasun K Sengupta said...

Do check out the Project 15A & Project 1135.6 Batch 2 photos at

Mayuresh Gaikwad said...

Hi Prasun,

Thanks for the comment. Taiwan and S.Korea are almost US colonies, so I suspect, majority of the threat perception is from the fact that these are major US bases in Asia. Probably even Japan, do not know much of that. However, as you rightly pointed out, the way China is expanding its defence capabilities, It might surely pose a threat to India. Especially with its submarines. I seriously think our navy is quite small comsiderign the fact that we have such a large coastline to protect and are placed right in the center of the world's most unstable part, surrounded by Pak, B'desh, Mynamar, China, all of which are almost totalitarian regimes and capable of either backstabbing or directly attacking India

Mayuresh Gaikwad said...

Looks like I screwed up in the previous comment. Even the US seems ambigouos in its support of Taiwan Vs. PRC!