Sunday, February 20, 2011

Could This Be The MMRCA Ranking? :)

These are the poll results of yet another super-unempirical, unscientific poll that I put up here a few days ago. Among the six options was one that reflected in precise terms a ranking that was conveyed to select journalists at Aero India by Indian Air Force officers, who of course asked not be named. They claimed that this one ranking was the one that concluded the field evaluation trial report submitted to the MoD. With the surfeit of hearsay we've had so far, I've decided not to explicitly put out that ranking until it's official or can be attributed to someone in the IAF/government. Obviously, the options above may not be real at all until we know something for sure. That said, the poll I conducted had no real intention. All I really wanted to do is put that unofficial ranking out there, without putting it out there. Obviously, if I tell you guys how well/badly you polled, that would be giving it away. Either way, it won't be long before we know something substantial. So let's wait.

39 comments :

Anonymous said...

option 2 is the correct one.

SHON said...

It is either rafale (126 ac) or gripen (>126)

SpArK said...

Obviously we expect your opinion.
I voted for option 3 and that too twice.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I also think it nr 2. But the final contract winner might still be F-18.

DJ said...

Just read news in India Today that Germany has refused to provide export licenses to H&K to supply some states in India with "poor human rights record"
I can only imagine what would happen to IAF if they ban essential spares supply in case of Eurofighter.
My option is : Scrap MMRCA. Build more SU30mki and wait for FGFA and Tejas.

Tanmay said...

people go for EF cause it is most hyped..
but super hornet has proven AESA platform unlike EF which is still underdevelopment..
also it comes at around $ 70 mil per unit..

Anonymous said...

bye bye gripen crap and f16 crap

Anonymous said...

Not buying American will prove to be a mistake. If you absolutely must buy the Eurofighter, I suggest you split the order with an American jet.
Think of it as a deposit to improved relations with America.

SpArK said...

And do buy EF fast.. so that Spain/MBDA can sell the Spada air defense system to the neighbors fast.

Paul said...

Rafale will win MMRCA......

Som said...

Eurofighter will bea disaster !

Anonymous said...

GoI may award the contract to F18 only for strategic reasons.

sriram said...

whatever happens don't buy american. they will bully us(cismoa, lsa,etc) won't second think to dump us if china agrees to form g-2

bits222 said...

come on man...we want EF bcos half the money will be invested back in india..that means MMRCA will cost us only 21000 crore rupees..and employment generation will be huge..and if india becomes joint production partner in EF we will get commission on the future sales to other countries...that means atlest 20000 crore earning in the next 30-40 years(offcourse only when the other countries buy it)than MMRCA will cost only 1000 crore rupees..126 fighter planes for 1000 crore is not a bad deal man..come on click on the like it button and make me famous

sriram said...

improved relations = business for us companies + minimal possible benefits for the indian side.

having a "anything western is great" mms as pm also is going to make india a lackey for us. if you people think i am blabbering read this

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-india-should-have-permanent-seat-un-security-council_515223.html

Kovy said...

At least we can extrapolate from this pool that :

mig-35 is actually N°6

As it is quite unlikely that the F-16 is N°2 then it is N°5 :)

bits222 said...

continued

and boys think if we get the 176000 crore of the 2G scam...how many planes we could have purchased....we could have a fight in the shade against china..just like leonidus spartan army had against the xerxes 1 million strong army..

Mr. Ra said...

As Mig-35 was nowhere visible near the horizon, so I selected the option No:3.

Now with the AESA, Rafale can perform all the tasks assigned to F-18SH in a better manner. Further Rafale is only next to or equal to EFT in the matters of technological superiority with some data of war experience added on it.

Regarding EFT, I had never been satisfied with the Four Nations Theory, wherein the estrangement of any singular nation may practically tantamount to the estrangement of all the four nations on any trifling matters like Dangs or Orissa incidents.

Rahul Devnath said...

Shiv, you can very well author a suspense thriller involving these 5 MMRCAs! :) In fact it's getting more interesting than the World Cup; we should start betting! Hoping at least this time around there's no match fixing. BTW I voted for Option 2. Whether feasible or not, Euro Fighter seems to be the front runner.

Shiv Aroor said...

Rahul: Bets not such a bad idea :P

sandeep said...

I think India will surely not buy the american plances. I think they will keep the americans happy by buying the p8i posedion, c-17 globe master, c 130 Hercules, the m 777 howizters ( hopefully), lots of artillery, and may be even the apache ( on going tender) so i dont think we are not buying american stuff. I think the war birds will be european ( one of our trusted allies from the past)

Mr. Ra said...

Hmmm... The 5-MMRCAs may sell more than the Fifth Horseman.

Anonymous said...

Was option #6 the unofficial ranking?

Practical me said...

while speaking to some pilots @ Aero India it seemed single engine light aircrafts are more favoured.. i would really like to know how F/A-18I fairs against Rafale and Gripen against F16IN technically.. finally it will all come down to $$ and operational sovereignty.. ToT is not much of an issue as all vendors will offer more or less the same..

Anonymous said...

So this after all WASN´T any sort of ranking for which jet is most likely to win MMRCA, but was merely a ranking of field trial performance... Ignoring off-sets, ToT, price, and any other factor. Meaning it´s pointless, except for possibly ruling out the lowest performing jets, i.e. MiG.

That is the problem with these ´leaks´ from ´IAF officers´. If they´re not inside the procurement process, they don´t really have full insight. Flight trials are only one part of the procurement. IAF pilots may prefer one thing, but that is only one part of the procurement. So merely quoting un-named ´IAF officiers´ doesn´t really mean anything beyond the limited scope of their expertise.

Certainly if the original question was which ranking was the most likely for FIELD TRIALS, I would have amended my own list, which wasn´t a given option (FINE, I¨m a sore loser!). Likewise, most all the comments to the poll contained pros/cons relavent to ALL the MMRCA aspects, not just flight trials.

Paying attention to details like that might mean you articles have a bit larger chance of being relevant.

Anonymous said...

The choice is between 2 fighters Rafale and like it or not f-18 reasons
Full Tot for Rafale option ot TVC in future no other nation operates it at the moment hence chances of upgrading and getting envolved in sales.
F-18 Strategic support full functional and combat proven AESA radar cost of unit.
We by Combat gear like vegetables in the market Rs. 10 cheaper we will go that extra mile

Anonymous said...

Yanks should seriously look into EUMA waiver and ToT

Anonymous said...

For info,
Rafale won vs eurofighter in 2008 8-1 dogfigth, solenzara
Rafale won vs eurofighter in 2009/12 4v4 4-0 & 2v4 3-1 VWR & BVR, R27 simulated 40km, ATLC UAE. the signature rafael is 16 time inferior to EF2000.

Anonymous said...

None. There is not going be any purchase. There is going be such a big tamasha that people would forget Artillery purchase circus. If we can not purchase artillery through FMS without some scam, then how in the world we gonna purchase 10-12 billon dollar planes. There are way too many corrupt people in the country.

Joy said...

With the US we are still discussing End User Monitoring Agreement.... that means the US in not so much in favour of delivering all the necessary technology with out restrictions. With Eurofighter we dont have to worry about EUMA, we have had assurances from Germany, Britain and Italy that we would have unrestricted access to key technologies. Also with the size of this huge contract we have enormous leverage with Eurofighter consortium. If the total number of fighters purchased is likely to go up well over 126 (possibly 250) we would be operating more Eurofighters then all of Europe. That in itself would give us huge economic leverage and near total technological soverignity, something we would not have with an American fighter as the biggest buyers are still the USAF and USN. At present european defense market isnt as large as US or Russia and they are seeking to lift restriction on sale to China. I think this is our big oppurtunity to get a strangle hold on European defense technology by way of a gaint contract. Besides Typhoons have a secure future unlike the F-16s and F-18s which have mostly reach the end of their design life.

Anonymous said...

Tough choice between F-18 and Eurofighter.

F-18 is the only complete aircraft flying today with an AESA and with relatively cheap weapons. But the US is going to drag its feet on Tech transfer for sure. They will also try to hide behind the US congress laws etc, will try and drag india into CISMOA etc etc.

The Eurofighter is the only one offering comprehensive partnership to India. They will make India the 5th member of their consortium effectively for eurofighter. Only problem is the price of the bird and its weapons.

Tilda said...

As everyday passes, the relevance of MMRCA goes down, we needed MMRCA like 15 yrs ago, with costs exceeding $12-17B when everything is said and done ,I feel we r throwing good money after bad, if we study the plight of our armed forces (specially the lower ranks), it’s really poor, worse for those who r retired with injuries or family of dead ones in battles, we should spend this money on improving basic infra for them(read healthcare, housing, ration, edu for children - overall wellfare of all our armed forces including coin/cops), get then decent quality basic equipment first , improve their morale by deeds not just by talks,, also, encourage private industries and reward risk taking entrepreneurs in defense , give them sops, make sure we invest in solid defense first, so that we can give a huge upset to anyone who tries snatch our territory, we cannot compete with the giant neighbor in terms of numbers, what we should do is asymmetry like the other neighbor does to us ,,but alas we will never change,, we will spend this $15b today and in 10 yrs we will be ready to spend another $20 -$30b asking for foreign fancy companies for RFI/RFP and story will go on, we r doing this past 60 yrs and still we haven’t learnt anything.
We needed artillery, lots of SAMs and subs (not white elephant AC carriers) like 10 yrs ago, first get them..

Yurebam_N said...

The next red flag, I hope the americans get a taste of what the French Russian and Indian trio could do...Go for Rafale; Nellis might see Tejas rafale and Big Daddy Su30 together taking on the aggressors..

MUKESH said...

ONLY RAFALE OR GRIPEN BECAUSE TOTAL TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY. AND MAY BE RAFALE BECAUSE WE ARE ALREADY USING MIRAGE 2000 WHICH WAS MOST SUCCESSFULL IN KARGILL WAR. RAFALE HAVE SUPERCRUSE CAPABILITY , MAXIMUM WEAPONS LOAD AND GRIPEN IS VERY COST EFFECTIVE + BOTH ARE NEW GENERATION DELTA WING STRUCTURED. ALREADY EUROFIGHTER BUT NOT FULLY TOT AND VERY EXPENSIVE.

Anonymous said...

Not sure how many of you guys have read this article.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/dae/articles/communiques/FighterCostFinalJuly06.pdf

Anonymous said...

No AESA radar without CISMOA the Americans vetoed and squashed the Israeli AESA offer for the Gripen because F-16was in contention.if no agreement is reached on this F-16 /18 are out .Speculations are ripe that even Mig-35 wont be selected. this could narrow down the choice to thethree Euro-birds.

RAT said...

WE SHOULD PURCHASE EITHER GRIPEN OR RAFALE ONLY 150 MAX REMAINING MONEY TO BE SPENT ON MORE SU-30MKI UPGRADING THEM WITH ASEA CARBON COMPOSITES AND ADDING FEW MORE STEALTH AND EW FEATURES THIS WILL BE MONEY WISELY SPENT REMEMBER 12 BL $ IS NOT A SMALL AMOUNT AND SU-30 IS A MORE CAPABLE FIGHTER I WOULD HAVE LIKE THE TYPHOON BUT THE PRICE IS A BIT TOO MUCH

Venkatesh T said...

By placing Mig35 last among the list, shows nothing but bias against Russians. Is it a fair deal to a friend?.
Any wise man will surely think from 'Rationalization' perspective and therefore bring in Mig35 into the picture. Many may argue that it does not exists, so are F16IN, GripenNG, and other competitors [Remember Our MMRCA is strictly 'ours', mean to say no other country will fly the aircraft with the same configuration, including originating country]. MIG as a company is not doing well and there are chances that we "may" we get a chance to buy the assembly line at a later stage. Remember,We missed a golden opportunity with Mirage2K earlier. Say,7-8 years from now we can have our OWN Mig35 which is much more configured / fine tuned for our specific needs [read as 20+ Mig35 'Growlerskie'.
My sincere and well-thought suggestion would to be consider Mig35 and Rafale only since both fulfill AF needs as well as IN needs.
We should say sorry to Swedes and other EU birdies but remember American teens are best considered as plague.

Anonymous said...

It has to be Rafale or f 18. Rafale because we can get expertise in high thrust turbofan engine with crystal balde technology through JV between GTRE and SNECMA. The engine under R&D is proposed to be fitted in AMCA. Thus It would bring down the cost of Rafale as well as AMCA since the servicibility of the engines could be done in India. Commonality of engines in two different types of aircraft could bring expertise in the only department where India is a bit behind.This given the fact that AESA radar technology will be given to India. With complete TOT this will go a long way to reduce the cost of AMCA.

F 18E/F engine has twin GE 414 engines which is another variant of GE 414INS6 engine that India has already ordered from GE for Tejas. If US could over rule CISMOA and transfer AESA technology this could be considered to be a good contract.