Thursday, February 17, 2011

The MMRCA Pecking Order Poll

In the next three weeks, the Indian medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) competition will move into a decisive phase -- price negotiations. A very specific ranking order exists in the trial report that was submitted to the government following field evaluation trials last year. Journalists at Aero India were selectively leaked information about this so-called pecking order. I've decided to hold out on the specifics until there's greater clarity. However, there's already an overwhelming sense of where the competition is headed. At the same time, there's still some very important work ahead before a final decision can be made. As always, it's never over until it's over. Thought I'd ask you guys what you thought, based on everything that's been reported over the last 10 days. Vote below:


47 comments :

Anonymous said...

Super Hornet is gonna win this one. Its the only aircraft with a complete package secured for the future. Regardless of how the IAF ranks it, by leaving the final decision to the MOD, they have pretty much given the deal to Boeing's Super Bug.Super Hornet remains the only program with good prospects for the future in terms of upgrades and has a well funded primary user like the USN supporting it.It is also the aircraft that offers the gratest amount of operational flexibility in terms of roles it can play including AWACS and Tanking.

Anonymous said...

If Euro fighter reduces costs its better to buy....in this context We can buy EF

1. EF for Air Superiority and
SU-30mki for strike mission

If they dont reduce the price then its better to go for Rafale for strike and SU-30mki for air superiority....

SpArK said...

Is this another of the opinion poll, which has zero effect on the outcome?

SpArK said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
I wish i was PM of India said...

Rafale might get selected bcoz....

commonality with mirage

Commonality with missiles(mica), Jammer etc...

if the engines are replaced with (kaveri- snemca) then again commonality with AMCA....

And navy also has a interest towards rafale...

it is the only other fighter after F-18 to have an ASEA radar...

It gives all the capability of EF at low price..EVEN F-18 gives but there is a question of TOT

They are speaking about transfering the production line to India

And its role will be to strike and SU-30mki looks after air superiority....

But i am concerned here bcoz SU-30mki has a huge RCS...which is every dangerous for a air superiority fighter....seeing this EF might get out side chance...bcoz here EF might take charge of AIR Superiority and SU-30mki for strike...

KETAN said...

according the reports i went thru all these days reported by many of the defense experts,I see thr is a grt chance of gripen ng winning the contest (f414 plays imp role) and the Rafael too have a grt chance as India enjoys a healthy relation with France which is also offering full TOT.and also technology up-gradation which has been validated on it recently.

Anonymous said...

Hi Shiv,

Since you seem to indicate that you have the information on the 1-6 order, I assume one of these is the actual order that you have been informed of based on the leaked information. I ask because, you only have 6 choices, when in reality there are as many as 6 X 5 X 4 X 3 X 2 = 720 different arrangements.

Gagan said...

Super Hornet is going to win MMRCA.
I agree with Anon #1.
The FA-18 E/F is the only complete package today, and one with an assured future.

Gagan said...

Its going to be
1. Super Hornet > 50% possibility
2. Eurofighter
3. Gripen NG

The others don't matter, including I suspect, the Rafale.

Anonymous said...

Hello All,

First of all, let me tell you that Eurofighter will win this deal. US aircrafts will NOT win becuase of Indians suspicion on US clamping embargo on high tech for reasons that USA can manufacture any time (say, India is polluting more than USA). France is given Submarine deal already + Mirage upgrade, guess, Rafale is out unless Eurofighter consortium gives the winning deal on a plate to french. Gripen would be on par with LCA tejas 2 so, do not have hopes on that. Mig 35 disapprenace in Aero India 2011 should tell everyone where it stands in the MMRCA deal. The reason to go for Eurofighter is 2 fold.
1: You have a good modern air frame which would last for the next 30 years (with upgrades(coming from euro consortium or 3rd party))
2: Politically, Eurofighter will give India leverage to twist 4 nations arm into agreeing for India's UN permanent position.
Having said that, there is a distant, a very distant possibility of getting F-35 to Indian Navy just to keep the Yanks in the loop. The disadvantage of this proposition is that, this is add more worries to IAF, it now has to build infrastructure, HR and management, its is a big headache. India will be the only country in the world with aircraft engines built from 4 nations (consider EADS as one nation and french as other). This deal is Eurofighter's to lose. If the consortium sulks in the financing stage then its US and NOT french. Anybody who thinks along the same line and want to add to this, please do.

Cheers,
Bharath

Anonymous said...

It will be a split order,,around 126 SH and 80 M35s, rest of them are going home...

Anonymous said...

The MMRCA will replace the Mirage2000 with a twin engined A/C? When the future IAF will be based on twin engined SU30MKI + twin engined FGFA/PAK-FA, why go for twin engined MMRCA??? Does not make sense. Unless the IAF have unlimited funds...

Anonymous said...

Super Hornet, although not as superior as Rafale or Eurofighter, will win the race for the following reasons -

(a) Only fighter to have proven AESA radar.

(b) GE F414 engine. Note that LCA MK-2 will be having this engine. The EJ-200 (which powers the EF) was rejected. It will be quite an investment (wasteful) to have two separate engine lines.

(c) This deal has a lot of strategic & geo-political element to it. Super hornet certainly provides that.

Anonymous said...

Shiv,

I have always enjoyed visiting your blog. But I get turned away when you put up such stupid surveys.

Here are my reasons for calling these surveys stupid:

1. First and foremost, irrespective of what the survey results are, they have no effect on decision makers choice.

2. Such ill-conceived surveys do not stand the test of empirical Rigour.

3. Your assumption that surveys help setup dialogue with your readers is flawed. This is because the participants of these surveys arrive at their choice randomly without a strong undeniable reason. Dialogue happens when two people speak coherently, there is never a dialogue when two people speak gibberish.

4. Every few months I see you come out with similar surveys on MMRCA. May I ask what have you learned from all your surveys? Could you please share any knowledgeable insight that you might have gained from these surveys with your readers?

5. Finally, such stupid surveys drive away thoughtful readers. Keep up the quality, quantity will come.

yindu ren :) said...

American fighter planes are seriously compromised because of american policy and it's behaviour during war(as per it's past record).
Best and clean option should be
Rafale, eurofighter typhoon,mig35.
Now, mig 35 is still not ready so it's almost out of race.
rafale and eurofighter are the serious contenders.
I personally go for Eurofighter as it's production line could be brought to India with more scope for future support and business.

Kuljeet Singh said...

India is set out to please all the potential MMRCA losers..

1. Russia - 30BN,?BN,4BN for FGFA, Mig-29SMT and Super SU-30MKI
2. US - 2 BN + 5BN + ?BN for C-130J,C-10 and P-8I
3. FRANCE - 2BN,?BN,?BN for Mirage 2000-5,Scorpene and Civilian Nuclear Deal
4. Sweden - No need to please, may bag Army Howitzer deal.

Which makes Euro-fighter the best bet to win this competition.

Joy said...

Bring home the Eurofighter baby. Save for F-22 everythings else is but an aerial target for the Eurofighter. PAF and PLAAF will be reduced to a puff of smoke in air.

Yash said...

Its the Hornet...Unkil is changing its stripes...

Anonymous said...

Shiv - I have been reading your blog for a long time now. I should say opinion poll is a worthless addition to your otherwise informative blog. After all it is your blog and your wish. But I am sure you can be more creative than this..

New York

Anonymous said...

Hey Shiv,

Everyone who has been following this competition in their heart of hearts has a favorite. Wanna tell us yours? If not, then maybe your top 2 or top 3?

Anyways, I guess at the end of day nothing else matters except what's been chosen by IAF(hopefully) or MOD(hopefully impartially).

Take care man!

sanu said...

my assumption-1-typhoon,2-rafale,3-f18 super hornet IN,4-f16 super viper IN,5-Gripen NG,6-mig 35.
Typhoon is definitly has big chance of being 1st,for d 2nd position stiff competetion between rafale and the f18,for d 3rd postion again there is competition between the f16 and gripen. The teens r very gud,no doubt but those americans r playin the same game they played wid U.A.E.they sold old craps wid nice electronics,avionics,.americans r cleverly making sure that their old planes production remains open 4 infinity.

Anonymous said...

The only 3 possibilities I see are:
1. Eurofighter
2. Rafale
3. F-18

Now, Eurofighter and Rafale are the 2 aircrafts that could win the deal.

But then, if you look at the intense lobbying efforts from the Americans, it looks like the F-18 is sure to win the deal; although it is an older aircraft (also a cheaper one).

In summary, although there are competitors with superior aircrafts, the one who can play the better politics wins the game.

And you know who that is going to be ... looking at the series of orders from USS Trenton, P-8I, C-130J, C-17, etc, etc ...

Anonymous said...

if not the typhoon/rafale the IAF would ultimately settle for the Gripen NG.

Anonymous said...

why did you put the Mig-35 in all options?mine would be the following

Rafale>EF-2000>Mig-35>F-18>Gripen>F-16

vinod said...

i think best chances are of rafale bcoz the iaf will go for the optimum technology regardless of price .price will not be a big factor but TOT and their base like mirages. IAF will surely put pressure on MOD to go for their choice. and now it depends on MOD whom they choose IAF or the US.

omar ankit said...

rafale/eurofighter are the only contenders ,who will win also rafale has more chances because

1.eurofighter is joint effort of European which will easily come under us pressure in war scenario or further nuclear tests by india.this is also reason for not choosing f-16/f-18 (this was evident for pakistan during kargil war)

2.cost of eurofighter

3.previous experience of french fighters

varun said...

hi Shiv/everyone
a big fan of this blog and the indian defence forum - BR...i have been following MMRCA quite avidly...basis my limited knowledge on the subject...in my personal opinion (which is pure speculation)...the first option would go as a recommendation from the MOD. however, MOD does not take the final call...its the MOF and going by the book (DPP, GFR, CVC, DGS&D etc.) there has to be more than one qualifier on the technical parameters including offsets (i believe it wud be 4 in this case which kinda negates the preferred list method here)...the contender with lowest quote wud be awarded the project...(i understand EF/Dassault offers best TOT but unfortunately RFP does not ask for the best but De minimus)..my list of 4does not include F-16 and Mig-35 (as in they wont qualify for price negotiations) ...i think Gripen IN takes the cake here:)

Dinakar Peri said...

It seems to be a European race... the typhoon and rafale... hope the dirty politics wnt play spoil sport...

Anonymous said...

super hornet is the real deal cause it has working AESA..EF and RAFALE are too much costly and without working AESA

BigLulli said...

Shiv, you're holding your tongue. But your options suggests this will come down to the wire between Super Hornet and Euro fighter.

Anonymous said...

>> why did you put the Mig-35 in all options?
because each ´pecking order´ (not ´option´ as you put it) lists ALL the contenders, and the mig-35 shows up in LAST place in ALL of them. in other words, it is the loser in all his scenarios.

My order:
Rafale > F/A-18I Super Hornet > Gripen IN > Eurofighter > F-16IN Super Viper > MiG-35

My rationale: F-18 apparently didn´t do well in all testings, presumably in A2A kinematics-related areas... Full ToT including source codes for radar and countermeasures does not seem to be forthcoming either. The Eurocanards apparently did well in those same tests... Rafale offers a very mature multi-role capability, and good ToT and offsets. Typhoon doesn´t really have A2G OR A2A maturity in the form India wants (´could be integrated´ weapons and planned AESA development aside) and is rather more expensive, both up-front and operating costs (this is not just $$$, but what % of jets are available for scramble). Gripen NG has great value although lesser capabilities at large, and it´s picture on off-sets isn´t quite as clear as the others, IMHO (?). F-16 and MiG-35 I won´t bother to analyze.

And not to say I would at all be surprised by a #2, or even #4 selection... Those are just the ´odds´ I see given all factors. Talk of a pro-American political imposition goes around, but all it takes is for a report of what the ´legitimate´ choice is to be leaked, and the tender is put under review.

saran said...

i think shivji, is playing a multiple role here to keep the audience in fantacy, i think all this opinions are waste of time, bcoz you will find out after this deal who got how much percentage and who is the broker, no one is really caring for their country, money only speaks we(i) only speak speak doing nothing in real, and what is the value of yours or my opinion poll,
if you are need in emergency get the best thing which is in the market or make it new, not like (lca, make a decision on right thing at right time that is the fighting spirit,
not speaking for years after years,
if it possible you can suggest this thing to mod or iaf, if their is no influence or no one is going to listen our opinion then what is the use of that.finally IAF only going to fly and fight if they dont know thier needs i am sorry for them and our fellowman

Anonymous said...

I was looking for Rafale>Eurofighter>F-18>Gripen>Mig-35, but could not find it.

chikoo said...

@everyone It should be remembered that IAF will never use the same platform that PAF is using so F-16 is out and IAF is not satisfied with the MIG-35's performance in field tests. Also if MIG-35 is purchased a lot western electronics will have to be incorporated in it and it will waste time and money, so MIG-35 is also out of the race.
As everyone knows that American military hardware comes with strict end user monitoring and lots complicated rules attached to it so it is highly unlikely that IAF will go for a platform that they can't use without restrictions, so F-18 is also out and therefore the contenders are
1:) EF-Typhoon
2:) Rafale
3:) Gripen NG

Anonymous said...

Remember guys what happened to the tanker plane deal. They had rejected IAF choice bluntly showing price as the reason. This kicks EF out of the picture. So there will be a tie between Rafael and FA18. My 50c.

Anonymous said...

i don't accept your pecking order at all. simple reasons euro fighter and rafale are both expensive and we will get fewer planes. We want quality and quantity. I would therefore go for a realistic option. 1. superhornet2.gripen 3. rafale. 4. Mig and 5. EF 6. F16

I hate this order but for the money best value in terms of maturity and package. aerodynamic performance may take a back seat

Anonymous said...

The best value for money is F16. It has the most powerful engine, the same engine that powers the venerable F15. It has AESA radar. And it has been at the forefront of all major air assaults for last few decades. The last clinching factor is the cost. Except F18 (which has a weaker engine) no other a/c comes closer to F16 in any of these parameters. I would like India to split the order between EF/Rafale/F18 and F16. F16 also trumps all other jets as far as ToT is concerned.

Amit said...

We should have A Poll Option as below

Rafale > Eurofighter > F/A-18I Super Hornet > Gripen IN > F-16IN Super Viper > MiG-35

My Vote Goes for this option

Praveen said...

Shiv, is the information that's available on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_MRCA_competition) regarding the cost of these planes accurate? Are the eurofighters seriously more than double the cost of 4 others?!

Anonymous said...

Just a thought: Didn't LM offer to shift the production line to India if F-16 got the deal? I remember reading this on either this blog or on BR that LM was planning to close the F-16 line. Anyway, where I am going with this is that, if India pick F-16, would that put Pakistan at the mercy of India for spares, upgrades, etc... of would only the assembly line come to India and all the key components still come from each individual supplier?

Anonymous said...

My Wish F/A-18I Super Hornet should be winner. Other are copy of F/A-18I Super Hornet.

Why buy a copy?

The New F/A-18I Super Hornet has improved electronic, consealed fuel tank, better payload and proven techologie. It has improved stealth feature. With the engine difficult to detect with heat seeking missile.

Anonymous said...

If USA is providing F18 IR (International Roadmap) then F18 is the best bet. Otherwise we should split the order between EF/Rafale and F16 (the best value for money).

Anonymous said...

hello indian people
go to the web see dogfight's results between rafale-eurofighter (solenzara afb and atlc exercice in the uae)and f-22-rafale (atlc exercice)
I think you will change your mind about the rafale!!!

Anonymous said...

I will remove two from the list: The Mig-29K/35 is a seperate procurment, in my opinion, and removes the navy requirement from MMRCA. A smaller aircraft like Tejas may join it. The F-18 is only useful as a heavy navy platform and is the worst dog fighter of this list.

Anon @ 9:06
If India picks F-16, the only plant for it would be in India, but components would still come from suppliers. There will not be an airframe shortage for decades because the number produced to date.

jkfaiufdn said...

I say...! The IAF of course respects the MiG-35 and considers it the best...but for diplomacy's sake..I have a feeling the F/A-18 will be selected[ :( ]..why,the USAF did n't choose it itself,they're just pushing off the junk which was n't good enough for them...just like their banned unsafe drugs....

SHON said...

I think it is going to be gripen.
reasons ->
1.low cost,maintenance,high sortie
rate etc. Money saved will go to 5
gen ac development and procurement.
2.with kaveri and G.E F404 having
about same thrust. thus future
engine replacement.
3.comments by IAF chief PV Naik
"Price negotiations for the MMRCA begin in a week or two. I am hopeful of a decision by September this year, unless dissatisfied vendors put a spoke in the wheel."

SHON said...

The comment by IAF chief suggest that
some vendors might try to jeopardize the deal in case their product is not selected. this scenario is only possible in case of gripen with uncle sam prohibiting engine sale.