Friday, December 30, 2011

MMRCA Jet Deal Results Expected In Three Weeks


It is understood that the lowest bidder in India's medium multirole combat aircraft (M-MRCA) competition will be declared in the third week of January 2012. After bids of the two finalist contenders -- Dassault's Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon -- were opened on November 4, it has been hectic work by the committee distilling a winner out of the closely fought final battle, a process that's still very much on.

I'm a little unclear over the issue of validity of the commercial bids, though. It was on April 27 that the Indian MoD made its big down-select, inviting only Dassault and EADS Cassidian to extend the validity of their bids till December 31. The two final bids were finally opened on November 4. But their validity expires tomorrow. Does this mean the MoD needs to get the validity of the bids extended again? Or does it go with the bid value on the day it was opened. MoD sources say validity extension is not an issue at present since the bids were opened, and that provisions are in place for such a situation (in effect, an extension would have been mandatory only if the bids hadn't been opened so far). Either way, if a validity confirmation (or other instrument as applicable) is required from the vendors, today is the last day.

Also spoke to both vendors. While one (won't say which) says they've got the same query, the other was satisfied that it wasn't an issue.

36 comments :

Anonymous said...

The Finance Ministry is yet to approve the deal. There are rumours that the MMRCA acquisition may be scrapped or would be reduced to 60 or 70 aircraft to tide over the crisis. The LCA mark 2 will enter serial production sometime in 2016, though the prototypes would be ready only by 2014.Are they counting on the Tejas. As far as MMRCA is concerned even 126 will cost close to $15 billion (News report)

G Karthikeyan said...

It would be interesting to do a Cost analysis of the MMRCA vs the LCA Tejas. A detailed mathematical model on the lines of the current exercise for deciding the L1 of the MMRCA contenders should be applied, taking into account, the money spent in R & D through DRDO & HAL over the past two decades, if not more, adjust it for inflation and other factors plus the In-Air cost of Tejas etc. I am sure it will throw up interesting results!!

Anonymous said...

Better cancel mmrca that keep postponing the decision.

Mr. Ra said...

ERV is really creating huge problems for MMRCA.

Anonymous said...

Russia has handed over the k-152 nerpa nuclear attack submarine to indian navy officials today in a russia in ceremony organized for handing over.

Anonymous said...

jf-17 is far better than these mmrca contenders.

Anonymous said...

Shiv,

I have a doubt regarding the bid validity and annoucement of a preferred L1 bidder. If we assume that the bids are not extended and a 'winner' is declared, wouldn't the losing bidder be able to argue that the price mechanism is flawed since it doesn't factor in possible variations in cost.

Mazar said...

How LONG is this circus going to continue ?? Even procrastination has its limits!

If India were to place the MMRCA in 2012, the first jets can be expected in late 2014 or early 2015.

By that time the Chinese would be about to begin production on the J-20 or at the very least be just months away from doing so.

The LCA would in all likely hood still be "just" a few months away and Billions of our precious reserves would be squandered away on aircraft outdated on arrival!

Anonymous said...

lol @ paki anno - 7:26
JF17 is better than mmrca contenders...wtf

Anonymous said...

@ 7:26PM Pakis will always keep kidding themselves ;-)

Anonymous said...

I said it here first Eurofighter Typhoon is getting selected only 150 will be purchased. That is stop loss solution for now.

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 7:26 PM
YES it is to Scrapple your butt

Anonymous said...

Hi Shiv, you are only reporting the news, so not your fault. But, this goes back to my comments regarding lack of PR in our Government and many other organizations. Why bother giving a timeline when we are not able to comply with it? They were to announce a winner before the end of this year, now that we are on the last day of the year, they are punting the ball a little further down the calendar. I wouldn't be surprised if they are not ready by Jan 21st 2012 (that is 3 weeks). I have no problem with the process taking long, but not being able to achieve the target (almost 100% of the time) is the culprit. This shows how poorly they plan their tasks, and worst, they only announce their inability to meet a deadline at the 11th hour. This Chalta-hai attitude is what holds us back.

Anonymous said...

at ann 7.26 jf 17 better than taffy nd raffy!lols.,jf 17 is best tat's why china is not keeping it in plaaf and selling it to pak at price per kg.hahahaha...i m sure one day will cme when people will say jf 17 is better than f22.hahahaha

Anonymous said...

The bid validity issue only seems relevant if currency fluctuations since the last valid date (envelope opening/ expiration date) change the values of the bids relative to each other... In the case of the MMRCA bidders, Eurofighter has signifigant costs in British Pounds while Rafale is quoted solely in Euros... so Eurofighter's bid should be marginally more expensive NOW vs. the beginning of November given how the Euro has dropped marginally vs. the British Pound in that period. If the L1 bid is very close, and the currency fluctuation reverses each bidder's position, this could be a controversial topic, at least amongst those on the side of the party who would benefit by accounting for the currency fluctuation.

Anonymous said...

I am sorry to sound pessimist, But this people said 3 weeks, 3 weeks ago. Or With the End of 2011, the definition of weeks has changed to Months.
Regards
Abhishek

Cpt. John said...

This prolongation of the bidding... Could it mean Saab is back in the picture?

Saab did receive the Switzerland-deal which will most likely include the E/F-version and thus, changes everything on why the Gripen was cut (as it just really seemed to have lost on the radar-availabitly).

Anonymous said...

Typhoon´s superior combat effectiveness in air-to-air missions (and basically parity in air-to-surface missions) translates into an overall lower war attrition rate. I wonder whether this important parameter is fully reflected in the LCC calculations. This of course would require a considerable amount of comparative operational analyses in the selected mission areas and threat scenario. Quite an effort but necessary to arrive at scientifically based attrition rates.

Anonymous said...

Indian Air force should get hold of a JF-17 and send it to the ASTE to show those jokers how Pakistan is going to whip their behinds!

I'm sure IAF pilots will wet their flight suits when they see they are up against the JF-17.

The Chinese don't have the JF-17 in their airforce because they are afraid of its power and only the great air warriors of Pakistan's airforce have the ability and skill to fly this dangerous machine.

JF-17 is going to hallal that toy fighter LCA just you wait and see!

pankaj said...

scraped lca project and purchase bluprint of jas-39 or tiawan light attack tranier

Anonymous said...

Something is amiss here. Looks like MMRCA wont be pursued further. Currency issues.....

sam said...

I totally agree with the Paki poster that the JF-17 is a superior aircraft. I do wish Pakistan all the best and hope that they induct dozens and dozens of JF-17 to counter the MMRCA.

That is definitely a super duper muper fuper strategy to win the air war against india. jai porkistan

Rajeev said...

I dont know whether there are any bids that are completed on time. Standard Govt procedure! It only took 10 years from the time AF has decided to purchase it.

Personally, I am wondering why dont the Govt shutdown the Airforce wing anyway, because
(a) Mig-21 and MKI are falling from the sky and our dear pilots and unsuspecting Indians are only getting killed
(b) Practically, this is boring episode where there are laundry of dates issued by MoD only to postpone it. Meanwhile, the price tag has only increased by 50%.
(c) Thanks to inapt ministers and corrupt officers, this game of chicken and egg will go on!

Probably, in two years time when China would attack us, we would not have any MIGs and MKI because all of them would have fallen off the sky and rest would be parked for not having appropriate parts. Then we have LCA produced at a rate of 10-12 every year, which we can use to fight off the Chinese.

I feel ashamed that the govt has brought this pity on us and the corrupt ministers in Govt has proved that there are also timid. I think the next general election would be in 2014 and may be again we will have UPA III and Mr. Chamanlal (Anthony) would be holding on to MRCA contract even then!

I dearly wish that Rafale and Eurofighter officially pack home and file petition with Supreme Court for recouping the money for lost time and effort in dealing with multiple agencies of the government where the important issue is the date of birth of General.

Anonymous said...

I feel bad that this MMRCA contest is taking so long. It was announced that it will be wrapped up in 2011 and now its not a good omen to see it entering the 2012.

I feel that after all there may be second thoughts growing on MMRCA since india will start receiving them only by 2014 to 2015 and by the time it will have a credible force, at least 2 squadrons, it will be end of this decade anyway and it will be time for upgrades.

Anonymous said...

If a war starts "tomorrow", IAF is still going to be flying those Mig-21s....

Time is of essence...They really ought to have decided a year or two ago...

Anonymous said...

@Anon 7:23 PM wakey wakey

sanjay said...

F22 raptor took 22 years to reach at stability stage when world says that its superb stealth aircraft.

LCA got develop in just 10 to 15 years. SO there is lot of chance that design of LCA will be more improved in coming years if EADS MACHO /HEAT is going to be Next LCA design with stealth for sure.

Anonymous said...

Hey,
LCA started development at the same time as Gripen, i.e. mid eighties - at least 25 years ago!

/Bull

Cpt John said...

@Bull So did the F-22, the Rafale and the Eurofighter.

Anonymous said...

Yes, and gripen is now undergoing its third major upgrade...

Anonymous said...

T├Łes, and Gripen is now undergoing its third major upgrade, while the Tejas still, more or less, comply with the eighties specification...

Anonymous said...

Our Gnat shot down star fighter f-104 and sabre jet f-86 dont worry guys we will do it again with tejas

Anonymous said...

60% chance that the MMRCA procurement contract will be canceled. Be scared! Be worried!

Anonymous said...

If the MMRCA contract is canceled, it will be time to shut down the air force. In fact, that's what the govt is wanting to do. The air force is costing too much, and taking money away from school projects and from the pockets of the politicians. It is time to absorb 22 IAF squadrons into the army -- about one squadron per corps, leave a few out for strategic bombing.

Anonymous said...

The MMRCA project may not materialize. We don't need the IAF anymore.

Anonymous said...

I would spend $10B on ensuring that Tejas becomes a 1st class fighter, and not on buying a few Typhoons, Rafales or whatever. It always take time to introduce a new fighter. Tejas may have started in the 1980s, but the laws of aerodynamics have not changed much. Typhoons, Gripens and Rafales all have some form of delta wings with canards. Nothing that state of the art electronics (AESA) and missiles cannot enhance.

Look around the world at all the other air forces flying MIG21, like the VNPAF: those are potential customers to sell Tejas to. With volume, you get cost reduction.

The MIG21 and F5 replacement markets are going unfilled. No one is going to spend $100M/plane to replace an F5. F16, sure if it is free (as with Indonesia)

Look at Korea. They are buying their own FA-50 to replace their old F5, and they are pushing their T-50 for exports. I suggest India do the same.